[one word] why doesn't crude oil fall into negative ice and rise instead?
[one word] why doesn't crude oil fall into negative ice and rise instead?
On April 20, a wonder appeared in human history! For the first time, the U.S. crude oil 2005 contract fell to a negative number, with an intraday low of - 40.31 U.S. dollars per barrel (more than 300% lower than the previous day's price). Due to the completion of the oil 0 price and negative price test on the Chicago Board of trade a few days ago, the exchange system opened the negative price "switch" of trading contracts, so all trading and clearing systems of CME will continue to operate normally. Under the pressure of the crude oil crash, financial markets, US stocks and most commodity futures all fell in response, while on April 21, domestic stock markets and PTA, black series and Shanghai copper futures mainly showed "low opening and floating green".
However, ice cotton futures unexpectedly withstood the repeated pressure of peripheral markets such as finance and bulk commodities on the 20th. Instead of following the trend, it ended up with a sharp rise. The main contract stood at 54 cents / pound at one time, which impressed investors and institutions.
Some cotton related enterprises and investment banks believe that 48.15 cents / pound at the bottom of ice has been established, and it will still be in the 50-55 cents / pound box in the short term. Waiting for the opportunity and signal of breakthrough, easy to rise and hard to fall will be an important feature of ice trend in April; while the focus of main contracts in May will move up to 55-60 cents / pound (60 cents / pound at the stage station is a big probability event), and textile mills, middlemen, etc. should step on the right track Enter the market rhythm, strive for 55 cents / pound below the bottom.
Why is ice cotton futures bullish when crude oil plummeted? The author's opinions are summarized as follows:
First, with the growth momentum of the new crown epidemic being curbed and turning points emerging, developed countries such as Europe and the United States have unlocked one after another, and the economy, traders, transportation, exchanges and so on have gradually recovered. On Friday morning, Beijing time, trump announced the guidelines to restart the U.S. economy; then Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina, Texas and other states pressed the "start" button of the economy; Spain, Italy, France, Germany and other countries successively appeared inflection points of the epidemic situation, and discussed the measures to relax the restrictions. In May, it is expected to usher in a comprehensive unsealing, cotton export, cotton consumption, textiles and clothing Install the inlet and return to the normal track;
Second, the outbreak of the new crown epidemic will have a greater impact on the cotton planting area in 2020 in the United States, India, Pakistan and even non state countries. According to the investigation, due to the backward medical basic conditions, insufficient detection and treatment capacity and other reasons, India, Pakistan and other Southeast Asian countries and Africa are likely to become the epicenter of the next new epidemic. At present, due to the extension of India's closure to May 3, Sindh province and Punjab province, two major cotton producing regions in Pakistan, the closure is implemented, so farmers prepare for farming, purchase and transport agricultural materials, etc And so on have been greatly restricted;
Third, in 2020, the phenomenon of "grain and cotton compete for land" will become more and more prominent, and the cotton planting area and supply capacity may be significantly lower than expected. In the context of the continuous spread of the new crown epidemic, at least 13 countries have taken measures to limit exports in order to ensure domestic food supply; in addition, since this year's floods + droughts + locusts + epidemic, Africa is facing the dual tests of food and economy, cotton prices continue to rise to a certain extent, and farmers will "vote with their feet".