Textile market
Yarn up or "empty check"
After the Spring Festival, on the one hand, the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic is still continuing, on the other hand, the yarn is rising against the market. According to the feedback from some enterprises in Shandong, Hebei and Jiangsu and Zhejiang, in less than one month since February 10, the domestic conventional yarn has increased by 200-400 yuan / ton, and some high-end combed yarns have increased by nearly 1000 yuan / ton.
However, with the gradual control of the epidemic, this week, the yarn showed a weak trend of rising. Why? According to the market, there are mainly the following reasons:
First, the downstream start-up rate rose and the market supply increased. With the acceleration of resumption of production except for Hubei and Wuhan, the start-up rate of textile enterprises has gradually increased, and the market supply has increased. On March 5, the person in charge of a medium-sized textile enterprise in Dezhou, Shandong Province introduced that the factory mainly produces ordinary combs 21s, 32S and combs 32S. At present, the production capacity has recovered about 50%. Due to the transportation capacity and orders, the inventory of finished products is steadily increasing. The rise of inventory caused by the rise of startup rate has become a "roadblock" for the price rise. In addition, in order to encourage enterprises to return to work and resume production as soon as possible, the government recently issued a number of "tax-free and fee reduction" policies, with obvious effect. However, because the business system has not been fully restored, enterprises with rapid resumption of production suffer a lot.
Second, the rise of grey cloth has come to an end. Since the end of February, most grey cloth market has risen rapidly. According to the feedback of traders in Shengze area, affected by the epidemic situation, the weaving enterprise's production capacity is low after the year, resulting in the shortage of some grey fabrics. In particular, some of the best-selling varieties, such as imitation silk, T400 and so on, many traders have hoarded. Data shows that since the middle of February, grey cloth of most categories has increased by 0.2-0.4 yuan / m, with individual increase higher. The rise of grey cloth directly promotes the rise of yarn. However, with the recent increase of grey fabric production capacity, the supply and demand are gradually balanced, and the rise of grey fabric has been weak, and even some of the textile factories reduce the price of sales, which brings greater pressure on the yarn.
Third, lack of orders is the biggest resistance to yarn growth. According to many traders in Shandong, Hebei and other places, the rise of yarn in the previous period was mostly "empty rise", and the actual transaction was very few. Recently, textile enterprises are not ideal to receive orders. There are still a few new orders in large factories, and small factories are almost out of luck with new orders. At the same time, affected by the global spread of the epidemic, the international and domestic cotton prices fluctuated greatly, which also made the yarn quotation of enterprises lose reference. On March 5, the global epidemic intensified and terminal consumption was severely hit. Many international orders were cancelled and broken. It is expected that the number of orders received by textile enterprises will continue to decrease in the near future.
To sum up, although the domestic textile enterprises have returned to work more than 95%, most textile factories are unable to achieve full load production due to the small orders and large inventory pressure. Under the situation of oversupply, the yarn has a lot of resistance to rise, and there may be a callback risk in the near future.