India's epidemic is serious! Ten million textile workers are going to lose their jobs! Cotton market
India's epidemic is serious! Ten million textile workers are going to lose their jobs! Cotton market further shrinking!
At present, the epidemic prevention situation in India is becoming increasingly severe. As of 17:00 local time on April 29, the total number of confirmed cases in India was 31787, while on March 24, when India decided to launch the first round of closure order, the number of confirmed cases in the country was only 536; that is to say, in the past month, the number has increased nearly 60 times. As a result, Indian cotton seems to be excluded from the global market.
India's cotton exports fell sharply, with 10 million jobs cut in the textile industry
India will be forced to reduce cotton exports when a large number of Chinese textile export orders to Europe and the United States are delayed due to the spread of the global new crown virus affecting clothing demand, agricultural products futures network reported on April 30. In response, Kotak, India's largest cotton exporter, said that India's cotton export volume in 2019-20 may be about 3.5 million bales, 700000 bales lower than the industry target. It is understood that the cotton exporter once suspended the export of cotton to China. However, after China's epidemic situation was under control, the Indian Cotton Association announced the reopening of the cotton market to China on February 28, and signed an export contract of 800000 bales of cotton with China.
However, in the face of the rising number of confirmed cases, India has decided to launch a second round of "closure" order, announcing that it will continue to extend nationwide isolation measures until May 3, in order to curb the rapid spread of new coronavirus. Under this situation, not only India's cotton export is depressed, but also India's entire textile industry is beginning to cry. According to the CMAI, if India does not provide assistance in terms of wage subsidies or return to work plans, it will lead to a significant reduction in jobs across the textile industry, with a total number of layoffs of up to 10 million.
As the textile industry is a vital pillar of India's economy, once it falls, it will set off a shaking economic storm. Recently, the Central Bank of India also acknowledged that due to the impact of the epidemic, India's economy is difficult to achieve 5% growth in 2020. This means that India's economy, which has already set a record of "six consecutive years of decline", may be in an unprecedented and extremely bad economic situation.
The import price of American cotton has gone up! 84000 tons of Brazilian cotton to China
It is worth mentioning that, as one of the world's largest cotton importers, China expects that the total amount of China's cotton imports will exceed 2 million tons in 2020, and China is also the largest buyer of Indian cotton. However, China's import channels of cotton are diverse, and Indian cotton still has many competitors in the Chinese market.
According to the data, in March 2020, China's cotton imports reached 200900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 32%. Brazil's cotton imports topped the list with 84000 tons, the United States ranked second, and India ranked third. In addition, the average import price of cotton in March was 1773 US dollars / ton, up 32 US dollars, or 1.8% from January to February. Among them, the average import prices of the United States, India and Brazil rose 6%, 1.5% and 1.9% respectively.
In addition, analysts pointed out that due to the accumulated sales of 1.162 million tons of cotton reserves in China last year, plus the accumulated turnover of 8.45 million tons in 2015-2018, China's cotton de stocking task has been basically completed, and it is expected that the domestic cotton output will pick up slightly this year. At that time, with the self production and self-sale, China's cotton import will decline, and India's market share in China will further shrink.