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Just after May 1st, how did polyester market turn 180 degrees?

In terms of polyester filament, Jiangsu Shengze No.1 mainstream factory has increased 300-600; Tongxiang No.1 mainstream factory has increased 100-550; Zhejiang No.1 Factory has increased 250-350; Xiaoshan No.1 Factory has increased 350-450.

Double international oil price

With the coming of May, OPEC + and other oil producing countries' production reduction agreements came into effect, and the world's economy has been restarted gradually, and the international oil price has surged.

By the end of May 6, Beijing time, WTI crude oil futures for June delivery rose 20.45% to close at $24.56/barrel; Brent crude oil futures for July delivery rose 13.86% to close at $30.97/barrel.

WTI crude oil futures rose for five consecutive trading days and Brent crude oil futures rose for six consecutive trading days. Compared with a week ago, WTI crude oil futures rose 99%; Brent crude oil futures also rose more than 90% compared with the lowest price of less than $16 / barrel on April 22.

As the most basic raw material of polyester products, the price of crude oil has almost doubled, which will naturally lead to the rise of various products in the downstream polyester industry chain.

700000 ton PTA plant fire

Polyester raw materials rise

On April 30, a fire broke out in the refining unit of PTA unit of Ningbo Liwan new materials Co., Ltd. in Daxie Development Zone, Ningbo. The annual capacity of the unit was 700000 tons, resulting in the death of two people on the site.

The annual PTA capacity of 700000 tons is nothing in front of PTA's huge capacity and historical breakthrough inventory. According to the data monitoring of China silk metropolis network, as of May 1, PTA's social inventory is about 2.38 million tons, still at a historical high.

But sometimes, when the market wants to increase the price, the difference between the price increase and no price increase is only one reason, and the explosion of 700000 tons PTA device in Ningbo just provides such a reason for the price increase.

Less stock of raw materials

Weaving enterprises take the opportunity to replenish

In the market research before the holiday, Xiaobian learned that due to the high stock of grey cloth, the shortage of capital chain, and the almost stagnant demand in the downstream, a large number of weaving enterprises choose to take a holiday at May Day, with the holiday time varying from 3-7 days.

Since the beginning of this year, the price of polyester filament has fallen sharply, which has set a new record low again and again, making cloth owners dare not buy a large number of raw materials, for fear of "copying the bottom to the hillside", so the inventory of polyester filament is relatively small.

After the price rise of crude oil this time, the owner of a distribution took the opportunity to replenish the goods, which may not be enough. It's only 15-30 days' demand, but it can't stand to add up. When a large number of weaving enterprises choose to replenish the goods, the market will get better.

May 1st consumption gradually recovered

Domestic demand potential begins to release

This year's May Day holiday has been extended to five days, longer than in previous years. Many people choose to travel. According to the Ministry of culture and tourism, from May 1 to May 5, China received 115 million domestic tourists and achieved 47.56 billion yuan of domestic tourism revenue, about 40% more than the May 1 holiday in 2019.

We also see in the news that tickets for the Forbidden City and other popular scenic spots have been booked as soon as they are launched due to the limited flow of the epidemic. It can be said that "one ticket is hard to get".

From this phenomenon, we can also see that people's desire for consumption is constantly recovering. When the external demand is not clear, the consumption of domestic demand has gradually started. As the first place of "food, clothing, housing and transportation", the demand for clothing can naturally feel the change at the first time.

The future is bright, the road is tortuous, for textile enterprises, the next biggest goal is still to live. To survive better, we need to know the changes of the market at any time. What should we focus on next?

Focus on

The change of opening rate of weaving enterprises

Although the market has begun to pick up in the earlier stage, compared with the normal situation, the weaving Market is still in a situation of oversupply, and the current situation of high stock and accumulated stock of grey fabric has not been fundamentally reversed.

In this case, the situation of weaving enterprises' opening and closing may increase. Once this happens, it will be a big blow to polyester factory's inventory or polyester filament.

Fluctuation of international oil price

Since the outbreak of the epidemic in March and the beginning of price war among oil producing countries, the fluctuation of crude oil has refreshed history, and even there has been a magic phenomenon such as negative oil price. In the past week, the price of crude oil has nearly doubled.

When the price of crude oil fluctuates, the price of polyester raw materials will inevitably be affected. For textile enterprises, it is necessary to follow the hot spot to purchase the raw materials just needed, but do not put all your eggs in one basket, which may be a way to stop losses.

Resumption of work abroad

At present, about half of the states in the United States have gradually entered the stage of resumption of production, while in Europe, Italy, Spain and other countries with serious epidemics seem to gradually "unseal".

The European and American market is the largest market for China's textile export. If the European and American market can be restored, it will definitely be good news. However, novel coronavirus pneumonia has rebounded in some US states as the economic activity has resumed. The outbreak of the European epidemic is also dangerous after resuming work. So how to follow up the development is still to be seen.